Do Cyber-Physical Systems represent a technical revolution, with an impact similar to that of the changes incurred by the inventions of steam-engines, electrification and mass-production? If so, what are the indications of this and what can we learn from previous industrial revolutions?
With Industrie 4.0, CPS is described as representing a 4th industrial revolution (recall that Industrie 4.0 constitutes a domain specific incarnation of CPS within manufacturing – see my previous posting on this topic). The revolutions preceding CPS are described as (1) mechanical production facilitated by steam and water power; (2) mass-production and electricity, and (3) electronics and IT driving automation. The 4th revolution is then described as an “organizational” one, where existing technologies (e.g. communication, computing, sensors, 3D printing, etc.) have improved to the point that cost-efficient integration is able to provide entirely new services, performance and organizations. This numbering of industrial revolutions can be discussed, but this is not the main point here.
Industrial revolutions are typically associated with technological innovations where old and new technologies compete for a time, but where new technologies eventually provide cost-efficiency and radically better performance,. Industrial revolutions are also associated with new opportunities and new risks (compare exploding steam engines when they were introduced!), and with potentially drastic market changes, where new companies emerge and existing ones that fail to adopt the new technology face the risk of eradication. Examples from previous technical revolutions include for example the replacement of horses and carriages by steam- and combustion engine powered transportation, or the replacement of mechanical calculators by electronic calculators and computers.
In his essay on the steam engine and the computer, Herbert Simon revisits previous industrial revolutions an identifies that
Considering these insights from H. Simon, and what is happening now, there are many signs that we are indeed going through a technological revolution. Indications in this direction include the following:
Considering the advice of from the past, and that we are part of an ongoing industrial revolution, there is no need for immediate panic, but it will be essential to strategically consider what the implications may be and how your organization should position itself.